And blu-ray has already been waaaaay overshadowed by this: http://www.physorg.com/preview785.html

1 terabyte discs, guys? This guy has been in development for awhile, I remember reading about the “Collosal” company a few years ago.(calling the format FMD-ROM at the time)
He’s got ->100<- terabytes on a 3.5 inch disc – RIGHT NOW!

Will the bandwidth of current DSL, Cable, etc. become larger to support HD-VOD – yes, the real answer is when, not just for a select few but for main stream america, at a cost that is affordable.

Sure I could have an OC3 or OC12 line connected but unless I own the mavericks or some other large sport franchise, I surely can’t afford it

Eventually the technology will become cheap enough for all the baby bells to offer it

but one of the caveats will be who pay’s to store the content, sure storage prices are decreasing but the size of the server farms that are required for HD-VOD content along with the maintenance of it will be enormous.

but in all, High Definition sets need to break $500 barrier for HD to truly take off.

Regular VOD

Currently my local cable station is providing VOD (via a service called iControl) and not just a little bit of content but a variety of movies from Premium Channels (HBO, Cinemax, etc), along with other cable channels. They don’t require me to wait 15 minutes but almost instantly appear with features of pausing, rewind and fast forward. At first I thought this was a great feature but then it turned more into a fad, sure there was a couple of things I watched but in the end it was just there. Would it had made a difference if it was in High Def. – NO. It really was that even with the variety of content there wasn’t anything that I really cared to see.
Sure I could of paid a few more bucks to get some more iControl channels but then Blockbuster Video came out with their new NetFlix like rental system so I cancelled the VOD capabilites and used the money for the Blockbuster service.

I used to use NetFlix but with the same feature’s now at a brick and mortar store BlockBuster. I am capable of catching about 2-3 as many movie’s as before with netflix, plus if I end up getting a bad movie that I didn’t care after watching it, it just means a 5 minute trip down the street.

DVR

since recently moving and utilizing a DVR from my local cable provider, for me this has become god send (since I supervise a 2nd shift). But ultimately I can see DVR turning more into a HOST and SLAVE functionality. where there is one central device (slave) that records all content that the different HOST in the house have asked to be recorded. But there’s only one problem with this. There never is enough disk space.
Sure you can buy more storage, but where does it end.

My advice, let the cable companies control the slaves, this way instead of being able to record 1 or 2 shows at a time you could record say 1-10 shows at a time with complete DVR capabilities.
BUT – let’s make this even sweeter by making the host cable box with the ability of recording your show’s off to a DVD, for offline viewing (computer, friends house, etc), hell you could even have it save the contents like mark was talking about to a USB Drive.
As for copy protection – just embed the cable customer account info. in the stream that gets recorded – this way if it ever shows up on the net you know where to go – This is what they did for the movie’s that we’re being nominated for an Oscar, so when the movie showed up on the net, a couple of black and white’s showed up the would be person that placed the movie on the net.
Damn with this type of setup it would even be possible to have show’s record by your cable company and you could watch on the road via the net. (depending upon the quality desired and bandwidth available)

this cable HOST-SLAVE option has many avenues not only for the consumer but for different business offerings that cable companies haven’t thought of yet.
Hey if you take this idea – at least give me some credit and a few bones wouldn’t be bad either. (plus I left a few things out)

PIRACY

Like it or not movie piracy is here to stay, first there was software then music or that could be music, software, movies (if you count 8-track or audio tapes). Personally I have had a friend give me a bootleg movie that was downloaded via the net. After watching it I wish I didn’t. Not because I feel that actors and movie studios don’t make enough money, but the quality was horrible. From the sound to the video. For me watching a movie is more of a experience (7.1 surround sound system, big screen TV, Tactile Transducers in the couch (sweet, but I’m sure nothing like what Mark may have)).

These are the things that movie industry’s need to focus on to change the perspective of your average john doe on why not to download movies. – QUALITY (sound and video) -, Plus with blockbuster and netflix unlimited rental program – COST -, without having to find a movie via the P2P then downloading it which could take hours/days – CONVENIENCE -

I believe the RIAA is finally starting to learn this via what apple has done with iTunes – sure mp3 will always be copied but once you start using iTunes the only time user’s turn to P2P are for things that may not be available.

QUALITY – COST – CONVENIENCE

kwik67@sbcglobal.net

Given it is the same size as CDs and DVDs, I think much of the non-tech-ish public will go for them before they will go for other more abstract concepts. Getting my dad to understand terms like “need more bandwidth” is much more difficult than “stick disc in player”, which he is presently very comfortable with. You say the word “bandwidth” around him and he’s calling me, because he’s thinking “that sounds like a computer problem.”

Not sure if the previous HVD referrer noted the manufacturer article or not, but here it is:
http://www.optware.co.jp/english/what_040823.htm

Addendum: Re-reading the previous posts I see that someone has, in fact, already posted the above link. So I am somewhat redundant. My apologies. But I’ve already done all this typing so… it stays.

What HD TVs do you own and prefer?

(I am assuming you own many and they are probably out of my price range but can’t hurt to ask)

And your Kiosk idea sounds great, if you are one of the few people on the planet with the cash. This idea completely stinks for the little guy. And the people who have no idea how to use this technology get completely left out in the cold, most DVD users like the fact that they merely have to insert the disk and play, not have to mess around with licenses and codecs.

You make an excellent point about the industry players fighting for control over the next standard. As a previous poster mentioned, content always wins, and we’re unlikely to care about the particular storage format. Convenience and to some extent quality will also be important, though historically super-high quality hasn’t been important. (eg: jpeg is good enough for most things)

You talk about a few different storage channels, but dismiss a wire pretty quick. How long does it take you to drive down to the video store/supermarket/etc? If I can start streaming a movie almost immediately, I’m happy for it to be in a reasonable 8Mbps compressed format… My TV isn’t that great…

Wires aren’t good for massive amounts of data; but consumers might not even want high quality if it means convenience, low cost, and availability right now.

-cje-