Comments on: Some more NBA Statistical Fun

By: Mark Meld

Mark Meld — Sat, 31 Mar 2007 21:41:11 +0000

The three point shot is not defended well, most of the time, and I find it to be BORing. I think the sport was better when the 3 point shot did not exist. The NBA brass has tinkered with the sport\’s rules and it\’s culture; how many of you think the sport is better now. If you do, you don\’t remember Hondo Havlicek or Oscar Robertson. But hey, modern NBA ball is political correct(and micromanaged correctness at that).

By: Frank Ruscica

Frank Ruscica — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

Mark,

Start a prediction market for hoops stats, so we can watch a whole community of analysts take shape, a la the baseball sites touted in Moneyball…

Then show off the best analysts on HD programming…

Best of all, offer audio simulcasts of games that feature extensive color commentary from the best analysts, so as games unfold we fans can learn the statistical motivation for different plays, player substitutions, etc.

Would be hugely interesting to all the fantasy league players, so there’s a nice-sized early adopter group…

By: Sam

Sam — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

What are the current obstacles to showing Mavs games on HDNet? ESPN HD is only showing 1-2 NBA games a week in HD. The Mavs play a fun brand of basketball, and it would be great to have more HD basketball content.

By: Rob Thrasher

Rob Thrasher — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

Damn, yer good. Two rules in life… Run the numbers and follow the money trail. Looks like you have both covered!

By: steven

steven — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

You need to have a “stat-off” with Norm. Listeners vote for “Most Fascinating” and “Most Dull” stat of the show.

By: taloned

taloned — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

interesting stuff. it sounds like something studied at 82games.com; the sonics hired an 82g analyst to their staff this season. the nytimes covered them recently. 82g also did a correlation analysis of shot selection to wins last year. meanwhile, long 3s or lfgas: things we’d like to know — how “open” e.g., whether def. opponents = more or less than 5ft. away; if the lfga was assisted; how many off rbs/2nd shots per lfga possession; how many 1-shot lfga possessions & % of total possessions. if efficient lfga shooters are more successful simply because defenses tend to ignore corners or because certain offenses are better spaced, with more offball movement to set up the corners, then any advantage could be quickly negated; otoh, if there’s a biomechanical reason (which stats can hint at, but not answer) for better 3pt efficiency (better line of sight to the rim caused by alignment with the baseline, better focus w/out the backboard) from the corner COMBINED w/ “openness,” that’d be good to know too.

the thing we’re really curious about regarding 82g or similar others — data collection. how do they do it? does the league sell it ( i.e., oncourt/offcourt, position data, 5-man units etc.)? or do they do it themselves by breaking down film? is there a market for this stuff? what would teams pay? we know all teams chart their own ind/team stats, although to what degree probably varies.

By: sterling

sterling — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

Very interesting post.Again…I previously mentioned I think ranking among the top ten in FG% and 3pct% puts you in the running for a championship…Hmm..I never thought about the pct from the corners…..

I would like to see if their is a correlation between winning pct, and the fta, field goal% (vs team), fg%, for the top three players on each team?

Does Kobe Bryant really hog the ball to much versus other players? Should teams really focus on the player with the hot hand? IS there a statisticallly significant dependence of one shot on the previous one. Or should the focus on mismatches?

I wonder if there is a correlation between winning pct. and going to the hot hand historically?

In 1983 the NBA became the first proefessional sport team to use a salary cap. It would be nice to see players salary move towards being 60-80% incentive based. A larger portion of ofthe percentage could be focus on collective accountability…Who we see individual players passon their own self-interest for the good of team?

It would also be nice if the NCAA and NBA set aside some revenues in a Trust that pays drafted players a bonus for graduating college….

Just a few ideas…We are starting a blog on NBA analysis…if anyone is interested email me at thebestcantstop@yahoo.com

By: Aquarius

Aquarius — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

I like the stat update. TY. Very interesting knowledge. Now the NBA will widen the court to make the 3 pointer equidistant from all directions.

I always hate when a player scores 50 but shoots 99 times. More attention should be given to effectiveness. Ratings based on Assists to turnovers, or shots to attempts. and even broken down further to Good fouls vs. bad fouls, or good shots vs. bad shots. I’m sure your people have already come out with formulas giving weights to these stats.

I enjoy the scientific way you approach some of these issues and don’t base your arguments soley on opinions.

By: Jake Haselswerdt

Jake Haselswerdt — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

Interesting to see that the corner three is indeed easier. I always was a little iffy on this assertion, seeing as how it’s so much harder to gauge depth without the backboard as a reference point.

Still, if you think you’ve found the key to shutting down the Spurs…come on.

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:22 +0000

I think Tim Duncan is probably the key to the Spurs offense. That, or the relentless drives of Parker and Ginobili. The corner 3 seems to be a consequence of those things, rather than the objective of the set.