Comments on: It all equals out in the end…Not http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/ the mark cuban weblog Sat, 20 Mar 2010 07:04:31 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: runescape money http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7204 runescape money Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:21 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7204 Being competitive . Winning at all cost. Any team, any player, any fan, any owner that does not complain should question their own desire to try hard. To want to win. The reality of it all is that for every bad call against , there is a missed call that goes for. It is the nature of the beast to call out only the bad ones. Being competitive . Winning at all cost. Any team, any player, any fan, any owner that does not complain should question their own desire to try hard. To want to win. The reality of it all is that for every bad call against , there is a missed call that goes for. It is the nature of the beast to call out only the bad ones.

]]> By: joe blow http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7169 joe blow Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7169 If there's nothing that can be done to improve call accuracy then there's no harm in saying it all balances out. If there is something that can be done then how much will it cost? When can it be put into place? And since we're talking about this - how much would it cost to put an intern behind a set of replay machines and announce every day every missed call for or against the Mavericks or some other team? How much would it cost to get 30 interns and produce statistics for the entire league? If there’s nothing that can be done to improve call accuracy then

there’s no harm in saying it all balances out.

If there is something that can be done then

how much will it cost? When can it be put into place?

And since we’re talking about this – how much would it cost to put an intern behind a set of replay machines and announce every day every missed call for or against the Mavericks or some other team?

How much would it cost to get 30 interns and produce statistics for the entire league?

]]> By: greg http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7170 greg Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7170 I couldn't resist: The question you propose can be mathematically answered using statistics, more specifically, a binomial probability distribution. Quick refresher from college stats: Binomial experiment is one that 1) experiment consists of N identical trials (we assume the refs are completely unbiased..ugh..this may be a reach. But for now, lets do it) 2) Each trial results in 1 of 2 outcomes, either a Success or a Failure. (Call "for" your team "S" and call "against" your team "F") 3) Trials are independent (another blanket assumption that the refs do not "carry over" any emotional ties to a previous call or the fact that Don Nelson and Mark Cuban are yelling horrible things at them. For now, refs are robots) 4) The random variable of interest is what we call "Y", the number of successes observed during N trials. In Mark's example, N = 500. He states that there are "60 to 70 call opportunites" in a given game. Let's actually calculate N out to be 65 (midpoint of Mark's assumption) times 82 (games in a season) = 533. I'll round down to 532 (even number) because the real question is this: "What are the odds of a team getting exactly 266 calls for them and calls against for an entire year". N = 533 Probaility for a Success = 0.5 Probaility for a Failure = 0.5 Y = 266 Probability = 533!/(266!(533-266)!)*(0.5)^(266)*(0.5)^266 Probabilty = 0.034576... Or, 3.46% of the teams on a given year will end up with the exact same calls "for" and "against". The odds of two teams having exactly 266 calls "for" and "against" is 0.034576 times 0.034576 = 0.001195 or one-tenth of 1 percent. You see where this is going: There are 30 teams in the league, so (0.034576)^30 (this decimal times itself 30 times!) is something like 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000001 percent. Or, in other terms, it will take 10^43 seasons for all 30 teams to have identical calls each way. Or, scientifically speaking, "it ain't gonna hapen". you can quote me. Just my $0.02 I couldn’t resist:

The question you propose can be mathematically answered using statistics, more specifically, a binomial probability distribution.

Quick refresher from college stats:
Binomial experiment is one that
1) experiment consists of N identical trials (we assume the refs are completely unbiased..ugh..this may be a reach. But for now, lets do it)
2) Each trial results in 1 of 2 outcomes, either a Success or a Failure. (Call “for” your team “S” and call “against” your team “F”)
3) Trials are independent (another blanket assumption that the refs do not “carry over” any emotional ties to a previous call or the fact that Don Nelson and Mark Cuban are yelling horrible things at them. For now, refs are robots)
4) The random variable of interest is what we call “Y”, the number of successes observed during N trials.

In Mark’s example, N = 500. He states that there are “60 to 70 call opportunites” in a given game. Let’s actually calculate N out to be 65 (midpoint of Mark’s assumption) times 82 (games in a season) = 533. I’ll round down to 532 (even number) because the real question is this: “What are the odds of a team getting exactly 266 calls for them and calls against for an entire year”.

N = 533
Probaility for a Success = 0.5
Probaility for a Failure = 0.5
Y = 266

Probability = 533!/(266!(533-266)!)*(0.5)^(266)*(0.5)^266

Probabilty = 0.034576…

Or, 3.46% of the teams on a given year will end up with the exact same calls “for” and “against”. The odds of two teams having exactly 266 calls “for” and “against” is 0.034576 times 0.034576 = 0.001195 or one-tenth of 1 percent.

You see where this is going: There are 30 teams in the league, so (0.034576)^30 (this decimal times itself 30 times!) is something like 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000001 percent. Or, in other terms, it will take 10^43 seasons for all 30 teams to have identical calls each way.

Or, scientifically speaking, “it ain’t gonna hapen”. you can quote me.

Just my $0.02

]]> By: Edgar http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7171 Edgar Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7171 It may not even out over a season but it should be the goal of any team to be in a position where the game is not close enough to give the possibility of a referee deciding the game. It may not even out over a season but it should be the goal of any team to be in a position where the game is not close enough to give the possibility of a referee deciding the game.

]]> By: kronicfatigue http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7172 kronicfatigue Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7172 Well, can we please remove the 65 calls in a game that's decided by more than a handful of points. b/c they clearly don't have an impact on a team. and how about teams that don't make the playoffs. do you think "my" knicks are really affected by calls? At best, a non playoff team might get an extra pingpong ball as a result of bad luck with calls. and for playoff teams, how many are in a situation where they've had enough bad calls go against them so as to actually affect their seeding? a handful? Less? and how many of those playoff teams, b/c of this incorrect seeding, actually play a game 7 where the HCA is actually applied? Looking at those things, instead of just trying to create a really small number makes more sense. And for the record, why would anyone care to have it EXACTLY equal? why not look at 2 standard deviations to get a more realistic picture? just because something doesn't exactly balance out to perfectly 50% doesn't mean that the law of averages is faulty. By your logic, since any one point on a dart board has an infinitely small chance of being hit by the dart, then it's impossible to hit the dart board. Well, can we please remove the 65 calls in a game that’s decided by more than a handful of points. b/c they clearly don’t have an impact on a team.

and how about teams that don’t make the playoffs. do you think “my” knicks are really affected by calls? At best, a non playoff team might get an extra pingpong ball as a result of bad luck with calls.

and for playoff teams, how many are in a situation where they’ve had enough bad calls go against them so as to actually affect their seeding? a handful? Less?

and how many of those playoff teams, b/c of this incorrect seeding, actually play a game 7 where the HCA is actually applied?

Looking at those things, instead of just trying to create a really small number makes more sense. And for the record, why would anyone care to have it EXACTLY equal? why not look at 2 standard deviations to get a more realistic picture?

just because something doesn’t exactly balance out to perfectly 50% doesn’t mean that the law of averages is faulty.

By your logic, since any one point on a dart board has an infinitely small chance of being hit by the dart, then it’s impossible to hit the dart board.

]]> By: Sherwin http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7173 Sherwin Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7173 The past few days I've been thinking of how a computerized officiating system will work with a network of sensors to officiate basketball games. It is extremely complex but it can be done.. and someone should give it a try. The past few days I’ve been thinking of how a computerized officiating system will work with a network of sensors to officiate basketball games. It is extremely complex but it can be done.. and someone should give it a try.

]]> By: M N http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7174 M N Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7174 Mark's post is silly. Each call goes for one team and against another, just as each game goes for one team and against another, so things certainly do balance out. Although not every team has a 0.500 record at any given point in time, the total number of wins league-wide is equal to the total number of losses. It is the same thing with missed calls. At any given point in time, the league-wide number of missed calls for is equal to the number of missed calls against. Over a increasing span of time, any given team's ratio of missed calls for to missed calls against will certainly approach 1:1. If the figure is 500 calls per year for a team, over the course of a century, the team will experience a total of 50,000 missed calls. Although the number of missed calls for will not necessarily be exactly 25,000, the difference between the actual number and 25,000 will be insignificant. Mark’s post is silly. Each call goes for one team and against another, just as each game goes for one team and against another, so things certainly do balance out. Although not every team has a 0.500 record at any given point in time, the total number of wins league-wide is equal to the total number of losses. It is the same thing with missed calls. At any given point in time, the league-wide number of missed calls for is equal to the number of missed calls against.

Over a increasing span of time, any given team’s ratio of missed calls for to missed calls against will certainly approach 1:1. If the figure is 500 calls per year for a team, over the course of a century, the team will experience a total of 50,000 missed calls. Although the number of missed calls for will not necessarily be exactly 25,000, the difference between the actual number and 25,000 will be insignificant.

]]> By: Steve http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7175 Steve Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7175 In the case of Vince Carter the official is guilty of letting his personal feelings get in the way. He directly impacted the outcome of that game. If Allen Iverson had been ejected for arguing too much tonight the Magic would have won. They walked away. They should have separated Carter then allowed play to continue. But officials are human. Who is to say that the fit the Kings threw on the court against Phoenix when the officials did get it right didn't impact the subconscious of the officials in the non-call against Dallas. It may or may not have. But it is interesting to think that maybe officials try to even things out on their own without even trying to. In the case of Vince Carter the official is guilty of letting his personal feelings get in the way. He directly impacted the outcome of that game. If Allen Iverson had been ejected for arguing too much tonight the Magic would have won. They walked away. They should have separated Carter then allowed play to continue. But officials are human. Who is to say that the fit the Kings threw on the court against Phoenix when the officials did get it right didn’t impact the subconscious of the officials in the non-call against Dallas. It may or may not have. But it is interesting to think that maybe officials try to even things out on their own without even trying to.

]]> By: Tim http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7176 Tim Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7176 Saying that officiating doesn't even out over the course of the season just because there are not an exact number of calls for and against a team is silly. I'm waiting for Mark Cuban to come out and talk about all the bad calls that help the Mavericks. I've never once heard him mention a single instance of a bad call helping his team, they're always the victim. And, unfortunately, that attitude seems to have rubbed off on the players, as they seem to scream at the officials for a foul after every missed shot. Just play the game. Calls are missed, officials are human, but it is rare enough and random enough that it does not, over the long term, affect the ultimate outcome. What probably does have an affect is the constant berating by Cuban of the officials. He can say all he wants that he supports the officials, he knows they're doing the best job they can, etc, etc, but that's just a politically correct way of criticizing them. It just comes off as whining. Let the teams play the game, let the officials do their job, and the best team(San Antonio, in this case) will continue to win in the end, just like they always do. Saying that officiating doesn’t even out over the course of the season just because there are not an exact number of calls for and against a team is silly. I’m waiting for Mark Cuban to come out and talk about all the bad calls that help the Mavericks. I’ve never once heard him mention a single instance of a bad call helping his team, they’re always the victim. And, unfortunately, that attitude seems to have rubbed off on the players, as they seem to scream at the officials for a foul after every missed shot. Just play the game. Calls are missed, officials are human, but it is rare enough and random enough that it does not, over the long term, affect the ultimate outcome. What probably does have an affect is the constant berating by Cuban of the officials. He can say all he wants that he supports the officials, he knows they’re doing the best job they can, etc, etc, but that’s just a politically correct way of criticizing them. It just comes off as whining. Let the teams play the game, let the officials do their job, and the best team(San Antonio, in this case) will continue to win in the end, just like they always do.

]]> By: AJ http://blogmaverick.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7177 AJ Mon, 28 Aug 2006 11:02:12 +0000 http://blogmaverick.wordpress.com/2005/02/12/it-all-equals-out-in-the-end-not/#comment-7177 Tim, I don't know who you're watching when you say the team is whining to the officials, the Mavericks really don't do it that often. As for you saying Mark doesn't talk about the calls that benefit his team you're wrong. Mark mentions goaltending because he knew Dampier should've been called for that against the Kings, he realizes on any given night some teams get the calls and some don't, what he's saying is over the course of the season it's not equal. Tim, I don’t know who you’re watching when you say the team is whining to the officials, the Mavericks really don’t do it that often. As for you saying Mark doesn’t talk about the calls that benefit his team you’re wrong. Mark mentions goaltending because he knew Dampier should’ve been called for that against the Kings, he realizes on any given night some teams get the calls and some don’t, what he’s saying is over the course of the season it’s not equal.

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