blog maverick

NBA All Stars by the Numbers

We have developed and enhanced a player and lineup evaluation system. We have been working on this for the last 8 years. Its far from perfect, and its greatest value is that over a period of years we have been able to identify trends to help us identify up and coming, starring and declining players. It also helps us understand what combinations of players work well together, and which dont.

To give you a basic understanding of the system, at its most basic its a plus minus system. Then we adjust it to take into account who the opponent is, is it home or away, are you playing against the other teams good lineup or bad lineup, what the score and game clock are (scoring the game winner is worth more than the 1st basket of the game. Scoring when up by 30 is worth nothing). If the team scores or gets a stop when the game is on the line, then your impact percentage goes up. We reward for getting the job done when it matters.

We track as you can see below by last games, and also track the variance. In other words, average is pretty much meaningless. You can score plus 20 one day, zero the next, but are you a 10 level
player ? We track the variance of the players performance. THe lower the variance, the more consistent the player on offense or defense.

One more point, these numbers don’t reflect necessarily the best players in the league, but what they do reflect is the players that are being best put in a position to succeed and are delivering.
When their teams have a need, they deliver. Thats why some names are not the biggest names. its also a reflection of their coaches. Some coaches don’t necessarily use their players in the
best lineups or matchups, which negatively impacts their ability to perform. Others are consistently good at it.

This is purely quantitative, nothing more or less. 
But Im sure it will lead to lots of discussion

                                                                             *******
                                   POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE IMPACT%  MINUTES  Z-SCORE  

   1 CLE LeBron James               24.16   17.18   -6.98   62.49%  1807.01   3.2034
        CLE   last    3/ 48         17.73   13.28   -4.45   33.24%   120.40
        CLE   last    5/ 48         19.78   14.07   -5.71   35.22%   195.22
        CLE   last    8/ 48         22.44   19.96   -2.48   62.95%   314.52
        CLE  window   6/  6 tm      18.11   15.06   -3.05   38.41%   232.74
        CLE  varies  48/ 48       ( 13.98)(  9.61)( 11.59)( 33.61%) 1807.01

   2 DAL Jason Kidd                 17.12   11.69   -5.44   64.94%  1761.98   2.7861
        DAL   last    3/ 50          5.16    7.90    2.74   54.54%   102.94
        DAL   last    5/ 50         23.37   15.72   -7.65   84.60%   173.52
        DAL   last    8/ 50         23.35   17.62   -5.73   72.93%   273.98
        DAL  window   7/  7 tm      21.01   16.33   -4.68   71.25%   240.58
        DAL  varies  50/ 50       ( 18.86)( 11.26)( 13.35)( 44.76%) 1761.98

   3 MIA Dwyane Wade                17.56   21.34    3.78   58.90%  1867.31   2.7435
        MIA   last    3/ 49         20.80   28.17    7.36   61.64%   123.53
        MIA   last    5/ 49          8.99   20.71   11.72   41.22%   195.08
        MIA   last    8/ 49         14.03   21.13    7.09   51.66%   294.94
        MIA  window   7/  7 tm      12.34   20.23    7.89   47.16%   258.72
        MIA  varies  49/ 49       ( 14.63)( 10.87)( 11.52)( 41.38%) 1867.31

   4 NOH Chris Paul                 21.12    7.93  -13.19   51.91%  1685.00   2.7183
        NOH   last    3/ 45         17.54    4.67  -12.86   16.65%    97.48
        NOH   last    5/ 45         20.71    5.81  -14.90   30.71%   177.90
        NOH   last    8/ 45         19.80    6.77  -13.02   39.15%   292.83
        NOH  window   5/  7 tm      20.71    5.81  -14.90   30.71%   177.90
        NOH  varies  45/ 45       ( 14.11)( 11.01)(  9.39)( 44.43%) 1685.00

   5 PHI Andre Iguodala             17.19    6.63  -10.56   56.90%  1896.28   2.6702
        PHI   last    3/ 49         11.57    0.78  -10.79   17.94%   121.20
        PHI   last    5/ 49         10.46   -1.02  -11.49   11.77%   201.57
        PHI   last    8/ 49         12.05    2.09   -9.97   33.83%   318.73
        PHI  window   7/  7 tm       9.75   -0.63  -10.38   21.10%   277.32
        PHI  varies  49/ 49       ( 12.19)(  9.86)(  8.69)( 53.51%) 1896.28

   6 BOS Ray Allen                  16.35    8.67   -7.68   43.50%  1897.46   2.2523
        BOS   last    3/ 52         14.36    7.84   -6.52   45.06%   124.18
        BOS   last    5/ 52         15.95    9.57   -6.37   54.50%   196.90
        BOS   last    8/ 52         20.13   13.09   -7.03   64.21%   300.94
        BOS  window   7/  7 tm      18.81   14.46   -4.35   61.31%   263.15
        BOS  varies  52/ 52       ( 16.46)( 12.76)( 10.89)( 48.47%) 1897.46

   7 ORL Rashard Lewis              12.91    6.86   -6.05   36.79%  1807.13   1.8585
        ORL   last    3/ 49          6.35    2.39   -3.96   16.82%   107.88
        ORL   last    5/ 49         14.77    6.01   -8.76   37.84%   188.08
        ORL   last    8/ 49         13.99    5.39   -8.60   29.24%   296.12
        ORL  window   6/  6 tm      19.24    9.51   -9.73   41.18%   221.53
        ORL  varies  49/ 49       ( 14.65)( 13.63)(  8.43)( 46.65%) 1807.13

   8 CHA Emeka Okafor               10.37   -0.14  -10.50   40.37%  1679.99   1.7337
        CHA   last    3/ 49         -7.12   -5.99    1.13  -12.95%    91.05
        CHA   last    5/ 49          7.75   -0.68   -8.44   38.49%   166.86
        CHA   last    8/ 49         13.98    1.66  -12.33   44.26%   253.02
        CHA  window   6/  6 tm       9.59   -0.65  -10.24   41.10%   198.14
        CHA  varies  49/ 49       ( 15.66)( 11.01)( 11.83)( 48.23%) 1679.99

   9 MIN Randy Foye                  9.09    9.93    0.84   43.24%  1768.34   1.6464
        MIN   last    3/ 49          6.34    5.95   -0.39   52.70%   128.74
        MIN   last    5/ 49          3.43   10.77    7.35   34.21%   201.94
        MIN   last    8/ 49          4.37    6.20    1.83   33.23%   325.41
        MIN  window   8/  8 tm       4.37    6.20    1.83   33.23%   325.41
        MIN  varies  49/ 49       ( 12.65)( 11.81)( 12.67)( 45.62%) 1768.34

  10 HOU Yao Ming                    9.64   -0.18   -9.83   34.83%  1579.31   1.5627
        HOU   last    3/ 48          7.81    7.42   -0.39   33.89%    99.06
        HOU   last    5/ 48          7.42    5.80   -1.62   25.29%   167.78
        HOU   last    8/ 48          8.26    5.11   -3.15   31.07%   245.35
        HOU  window   5/  7 tm       7.42    5.80   -1.62   25.29%   167.78
        HOU  varies  48/ 48       ( 13.21)( 11.94)( 10.35)( 48.19%) 1579.31

                                                                             *******
                                   POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE IMPACT%  MINUTES  Z-SCORE  
  11 ATL Joe Johnson                 8.69    3.09   -5.59   37.43%  1917.51   1.5229
        ATL   last    3/ 48          3.67    4.44    0.77   26.02%   121.73
        ATL   last    5/ 48         -1.44    0.51    1.95    9.43%   205.94
        ATL   last    8/ 48          2.25    2.08   -0.17   15.91%   324.04
        ATL  window   6/  8 tm      -1.95   -0.15    1.81    6.23%   249.22
        ATL  varies  48/ 48       ( 13.21)(  9.57)( 12.38)( 38.42%) 1917.51

  12 BOS Kevin Garnett               9.43    3.16   -6.27   32.43%  1594.00   1.4937
        BOS   last    5/ 49         12.52    7.36   -5.16   49.46%   156.75
        BOS   last    8/ 49         17.92    4.95  -12.97   53.54%   250.13
        BOS  window   5/  7 tm      12.52    7.36   -5.16   49.46%   156.75
        BOS  varies  49/ 49       ( 18.27)( 13.57)( 12.38)( 50.83%) 1594.00

  13 DEN Nene                       10.79    2.87   -7.92   27.47%  1642.84   1.4643
        DEN   last    3/ 50          8.22    7.28   -0.94   49.03%    89.46
        DEN   last    5/ 50         11.18    9.19   -1.99   39.02%   156.01
        DEN   last    8/ 50         12.80    6.92   -5.88   32.15%   246.48
        DEN  window   8/  8 tm      12.80    6.92   -5.88   32.15%   246.48
        DEN  varies  50/ 50       ( 16.25)( 14.16)( 10.14)( 52.28%) 1642.84

  14 DET Rasheed Wallace             8.63    2.58   -6.05   33.16%  1481.02   1.4407
        DET   last    3/ 44         15.98    9.32   -6.65   65.70%   124.29
        DET   last    5/ 44         13.37    4.73   -8.64   66.60%   201.85
        DET   last    8/ 44          9.38    4.49   -4.89   47.81%   292.05
        DET  window   6/  6 tm      12.45    5.93   -6.52   56.45%   240.59
        DET  varies  44/ 44       ( 15.85)( 11.22)( 11.86)( 54.42%) 1481.02

  15 LAL Kobe Bryant                 9.19    8.50   -0.70   27.97%  1793.17   1.3706
        LAL   last    3/ 49         14.01   16.74    2.73   63.87%   119.44
        LAL   last    5/ 49         12.59   19.61    7.02   49.08%   189.05
        LAL   last    8/ 49         12.41   15.76    3.35   42.00%   294.68
        LAL  window   7/  7 tm      10.59   14.99    4.39   43.58%   266.58
        LAL  varies  49/ 49       ( 13.82)( 10.12)( 12.01)( 47.40%) 1793.17

  16 UTA Andrei Kirilenko           12.17    6.78   -5.39   21.92%  1139.46   1.3604
        UTA   last    3/ 38         11.53   13.86    2.33   19.61%    75.18
        UTA   last    5/ 38          9.32   14.02    4.70    9.43%   156.50
        UTA   last    8/ 38         14.04   16.55    2.51   15.45%   243.33
        UTA  window   0/  7 tm       0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00%     0.00
        UTA  varies  38/ 38       ( 18.17)( 11.89)( 13.66)( 56.91%) 1139.46

  17 PHO Grant Hill                  8.33    3.63   -4.70   30.18%  1382.00   1.3534
        PHO   last    3/ 48         19.33   14.43   -4.90   11.05%    89.98
        PHO   last    5/ 48          8.57   11.90    3.33    3.77%   166.17
        PHO   last    8/ 48          5.08    8.13    3.04    6.70%   236.57
        PHO  window   7/  7 tm       9.89   11.36    1.47   12.46%   210.07
        PHO  varies  48/ 48       ( 21.14)( 14.26)( 14.93)( 54.56%) 1382.00

  18 UTA Paul Millsap               11.20    3.62   -7.58   22.82%  1444.24   1.3473
        UTA   last    3/ 45         24.72    8.32  -16.40   41.92%    88.94
        UTA   last    5/ 45         18.68   10.25   -8.44   27.36%   158.35
        UTA   last    8/ 45          7.85    4.91   -2.95    1.34%   267.38
        UTA  window   7/  7 tm       9.85    5.53   -4.32    9.80%   226.25
        UTA  varies  45/ 45       ( 17.56)( 10.11)( 13.49)( 46.96%) 1444.24

  19 NJN Jarvis Hayes                8.04   -0.86   -8.90   29.31%  1164.38   1.3109
        NJN   last    3/ 46         23.51   -1.09  -24.59   28.15%    78.13
        NJN   last    5/ 46         16.82   -6.82  -23.64   48.06%   131.01
        NJN   last    8/ 46         13.98   -6.05  -20.03   23.98%   194.42
        NJN  window   7/  7 tm      11.23   -8.71  -19.94   14.09%   172.93
        NJN  varies  46/ 46       ( 19.24)( 14.35)( 14.12)( 59.98%) 1164.38

  20 POR LaMarcus Aldridge           7.69    3.77   -3.92   30.72%  1789.65   1.3095
        POR   last    3/ 49         -0.04   -1.68   -1.64   19.85%   123.20
        POR   last    5/ 49          7.81    2.71   -5.10   30.56%   192.67
        POR   last    8/ 49          4.06    1.89   -2.18   23.90%   305.24
        POR  window   6/  6 tm       7.45    2.81   -4.63   35.02%   226.91
        POR  varies  49/ 49       ( 15.23)( 13.36)(  8.97)( 50.43%) 1789.65

                                                                             *******
                                   POINTS= OFFENSE-DEFENSE IMPACT%  MINUTES  Z-SCORE  

  21 UTA Mehmet Okur                 6.72    3.48   -3.24   35.80%  1491.46   1.3032
        UTA   last    3/ 43         22.27    9.73  -12.54   69.04%   104.35
        UTA   last    5/ 43         14.79    9.82   -4.97   49.40%   173.36
        UTA   last    8/ 43          7.97    5.26   -2.71   32.81%   272.60
        UTA  window   7/  7 tm       8.89    5.80   -3.09   37.37%   250.76
        UTA  varies  43/ 43       ( 14.34)( 10.51)( 10.17)( 43.33%) 1491.46

  22 MIN Sebastian Telfair           5.65    1.78   -3.87   46.12%  1126.73   1.2886
        MIN   last    3/ 44          5.53   -0.43   -5.96   55.48%    92.25
        MIN   last    5/ 44          4.88    6.03    1.15   44.59%   160.05
        MIN   last    8/ 44          4.11    1.89   -2.22   49.30%   254.67
        MIN  window   8/  8 tm       4.11    1.89   -2.22   49.30%   254.67
        MIN  varies  44/ 44       ( 15.03)( 14.42)( 14.56)( 41.52%) 1126.73

  23 DAL Dirk Nowitzki               7.04    7.08    0.04   30.27%  1836.86   1.2430
        DAL   last    3/ 49          4.89    2.60   -2.29   36.74%   115.33
        DAL   last    5/ 49         16.08    7.51   -8.57   56.35%   189.51
        DAL   last    8/ 49         14.55   10.92   -3.63   44.59%   291.47
        DAL  window   7/  7 tm      12.94    9.48   -3.45   43.81%   254.69
        DAL  varies  49/ 49       ( 18.02)( 10.46)( 13.44)( 47.24%) 1836.86

  24 PHO Steve Nash                 11.71   14.90    3.19   18.33%  1497.80   1.2248
        PHO   last    3/ 44          7.52   21.05   13.53   -4.42%    93.21
        PHO   last    5/ 44          3.44   19.26   15.82  -12.94%   173.73
        PHO   last    8/ 44          4.17   15.48   11.31    1.84%   263.71
        PHO  window   7/  7 tm       8.98   18.86    9.89    8.29%   242.28
        PHO  varies  44/ 44       ( 17.71)( 12.53)( 12.46)( 57.52%) 1497.80

  25 TOR Chris Bosh                 10.15    7.38   -2.77   19.85%  1948.03   1.2039
        TOR   last    3/ 51         -0.33    4.72    5.04    6.45%    97.50
        TOR   last    5/ 51         -3.84    2.34    6.18    4.43%   172.91
        TOR   last    8/ 51          5.99    6.86    0.87   20.57%   286.96
        TOR  window   6/  8 tm       0.70    3.85    3.15   14.38%   210.41
        TOR  varies  51/ 51       ( 15.42)( 10.30)( 12.11)( 49.95%) 1948.03

  26 LAL Lamar Odom                  8.25    4.25   -4.01   22.85%  1254.11   1.1732
        LAL   last    3/ 46         11.66   10.50   -1.16   65.37%   106.50
        LAL   last    5/ 46          9.70   11.30    1.61   52.25%   159.61
        LAL   last    8/ 46          5.18    5.94    0.76   15.76%   242.97
        LAL  window   7/  7 tm       3.36    3.99    0.63   16.49%   220.27
        LAL  varies  46/ 46       ( 20.55)( 15.10)( 13.85)( 59.77%) 1254.11

  27 CHI Ben Gordon                  6.83    7.33    0.50   27.49%  1836.72   1.1702
        CHI   last    3/ 51          3.17   15.05   11.88   12.35%   104.44
        CHI   last    5/ 51          9.82   15.52    5.71   33.15%   175.44
        CHI   last    8/ 51          6.75   10.05    3.30   18.38%   281.08
        CHI  window   7/  7 tm       9.66   10.82    1.16   26.96%   249.30
        CHI  varies  51/ 51       ( 14.18)( 10.62)( 12.34)( 45.11%) 1836.72

  28 PHI Thaddeus Young              6.68    2.44   -4.24   28.05%  1662.23   1.1680
        PHI   last    3/ 49         14.82    5.86   -8.96   29.69%   105.76
        PHI   last    5/ 49          5.90   -1.58   -7.48    0.21%   189.84
        PHI   last    8/ 49          7.16    1.40   -5.76   21.08%   296.87
        PHI  window   7/  7 tm       7.49   -0.44   -7.93   18.03%   258.09
        PHI  varies  49/ 49       ( 14.84)( 11.93)(  9.73)( 56.64%) 1662.23

  29 SAS Matt Bonner                 9.88    4.38   -5.51   16.08%  1065.79   1.0762
        SAS   last    3/ 47         12.41    9.54   -2.88   24.40%    75.24
        SAS   last    5/ 47         14.13    9.21   -4.92   35.69%   133.79
        SAS   last    8/ 47          8.89    2.57   -6.32   23.54%   200.32
        SAS  window   6/  6 tm       7.80    4.19   -3.61   20.91%   155.16
        SAS  varies  47/ 47       ( 22.01)( 16.66)( 15.12)( 60.72%) 1065.79

  30 GSW Andris Biedrins             4.42    1.19   -3.23   35.21%  1548.46   1.0627
        GSW   last    3/ 50         20.95   22.70    1.75   86.50%    67.43
        GSW   last    5/ 50         15.08    9.25   -5.83   68.29%   115.38
        GSW   last    8/ 50          7.95    4.14   -3.80   52.27%   201.71
        GSW  window   7/  7 tm       9.09    4.08   -5.01   51.50%   166.84
        GSW  varies  50/ 50       ( 14.19)( 12.77)( 11.53)( 50.93%) 1548.46