I could be an idiot. But I think now is the time. I put 8 pct of my net worth in DIAmond puts at 11000, as a hedge, and just sold them at a very nice gain. Very nice. Now Im short puts that I sold in not near as big a position, but nice.
Im going long.
Im not going to give you some historical perspective. The SEC killed any historical relevance when they stopped shorts on 900 stocks. Im buying because the only real uncertainty I see remaining is from the economy. So when you hear the talking heads giving you historical facts, stand up, yell at the screen “You are full of BS”
One thing I know is that starting tomorrow the shorts can get back in the market. I love shorts. Short create a foundation of demand for their positions. If a good company gets shorted, whether as a hedge, or because someone thinks the company will underperform, that short will need to be covered at some point. If the company outperforms, or the demand for the stock exceeds the supply, the price of the stock, like any baseball card, iwll go up. Which will provide incentive for the shorts to cover sooner than later. When that happens, the stocks go up. Shorts are good for the market. They make good companies go up in price.
When I look at the credit markets. The Fed and Treasury and even international agencies are signalling that they will be the lender of the first and last resort. We see short term treasuries trading as if traders are starting to get comfortable with credit and liquidity. I think that although banks dont fully trust lending to each other yet, they are working to put together the scenarios under which they will trade. They are gearing up.
I have no idea what the economy will do other than the fact that it wont be good. How bad it will get, I dont know. But I can look at a company, discount what the projections are, then discount them some more, and come up with what I think is a fair price.
What is a fair price to me ? Well I start with the Dividend first. No dividend, no buy. Wasn’t that a song ? No Dividend, no buy…oooh Or was it No Woman No Cry.. Any way I digress.
My first stomping grounds are MLPs. They have been getting killed. KILLED. They build pipelines, ships, whatever, and they do contracts to provide service via those assets. The assets are very long term, and the cash flows are very consistent. I am putting together a big porfolio that will pay me more than 10pct yield. The nice thing about 10pct yield, is that its 10pct yield. As long as I watch them and make sure nothing changes in their business to impact that yield (and hopefully it improves and they increase the payout), then I dont have to mark to market on a daily basis. I just get paid.
Im also short DIAmond puts (which track the dow jones). Why sell puts ? With market volatility (VIX) at an all time high, I wanted to take in some of the volatility premium in this bullish move. This is not a move for the faint of heart. I will have to watch this like a hawk. I have my parameters for covering them and If things zig or zag, I will cover, hopefully at a lower price than what I sold them for.
I’m also looking at stocks in industries that I know very well that yield 6pct or more. Dividends that I think are safe in companies that I think are very strong. This wont be a big part of my portfolio. Just a tasting.
Why ? Because there are some good companies, in good businesses where I think the dividend is safe, and 6pct , plust hopefully future dividend increases is a good thing. Notice I didnt say a word about the price going up. It doesnt matter if the price goes up. It matters if the dividend goes up. The best stock to buy is the one you never have to sell. It just pays you forever. The concept that you own your share of the discounted cash flow of a company is the biggest lie ever sold by brokers in the history of financial markets. You dont own shit. The CEOs, you know the ones that pay themselves, but dont manage to pay dividends, they control and effectively own those future cash flows. So dont kid yourself. Buy stocks that pay dividends and get paid. Even then there is the risk they can go to zero. So always be ware.
All that said. The stock market can humble me or anyone in a nano second. It could go a lot lower. I DO NOT SEE IT GOING DRAMATICALLY HIGHER. NO CHANCE IT GETS BACK TO 11k anytime soon.
But, Do not take advice from me. In fact, do not take advice from anyone. If your advisor was so smart, they wouldnt be giving you advice on what to buy. They would be sitting on their yacht, being taken to port to hop on their helicopter to go to the airport to jump on their GV to go to their house on an island you have never heard of. Not sitting in an office, on the phone talking to your about to go nuclear over the market ass..
Unless you know a company and industry as well as anyone, PUT YOUR MONEY IN A CD. Buying and holding a CD that you renew every 6 months or so, and letting interest compound lets you sleep at night AND lets your money go up.
If you put your money in a CD, you have outperformed 99pct of fund and hedge fund managers around the world over the last 3 months and probably longer. Thats how smart you are. If you put your money in a CD, YOU MAKE MONEY EVERY SINGLE DAY OF YOUR LIFE. You never lose money. EVER. The NASDAQ is below where it was about 10 years ago. It is 65pct below its all time high. You are smarter than the market when you put your money in a CD.
But if you are willing to do the work, and willing to approach the stock market like a trip to Las Vegas, with the knowledge of how much you can afford to lose. If you are willing to approach the stock market like your baseball card or stamp collection, where you realize value is about supply and demand. Then I think it might be the time to dip your toes in the water. If you do decide to take the GAMBLE, at least GAMBLE on a stock that you believe has a safe dividend.
Good Gambling and Good Luck
Pingback: The Investor Rebellion » Another great essay by Mark Cuban
Only one problem.. shorts don’t short good companies. Shorts losing money
/creating demand on “good companies” is minor compared to their affect
on companies struggling.
Even still, keep it a free market sans naked shorting.
Comment by nigel -
Maybe he could ask Ingvar Kamprad, a Swedish man, an entrepreneur,
who founded one of the worlds largest furniture retailers during a time
when Sweden was deeply “socialist” (such a misuse of the word) and today
though retired, is still a part of this company. IKEA.
Comment by Mrs. Firefighter -
Pingback: Get ready for mass business failures! : Texas Startup Blog
Mark,
I just found this blog (sad for me that I did not find you earlier).
Very well written and I think it offers much for the average
individual investor.
Agree completely that stockbroker or investment advisor cannot offer
such great information – or else they be too wealthy do what they do.
I note that the first commenter above says he doesn’t understand some
of what you talk about. I’m sure that’s especially true of selling
puts. Just want to let you know that a specialize in teaching
rookies all about options – especially on using them conservatively.
I stress risk management and always invest with limited losses.
http://blog.mdwoptions.com/options_for_rookies/
Comment by Mark Wolfinger -
mark – liqudate roth to eliminate debt? long S&P calls or the spiders themselves? or just buy dividend machines, use margin to consolidate debt, and sell off and take capital gains in 5 years? I’m not a novice, and still I’m befuddled.
Comment by JR -
Mark I agree with you on MLP’s. Ive been in them for years and have
recently bought alot more. I like PAA,OKS,ETP,EPD,KMP,EPB and TGP with
a little more risk.I also like closed end muni bond funds at a 25%
discount to net asset value. anytime i can but $! for .75 I like it
Comment by jeff -
Mr. Cuban,
I hear you like to invest in new inventive Ideas. Well I am with a fairly new company who sells a lollipop that assists in weight loss. I know who would have thought of a lollipop, a candy that makes you lose weight!?
Well this company in just four (4) years has sold over 17 Million pops and has just been listed as the #2 weight-loss breakthough buy Womans’s World Magazine. Our marketing scheme is strictly word of mouth. We have done no advertising, but have been listed in Magazines and News shows accross the nation. Currrently we are looking for investors or even possibly a sale. If there is an interest please contact me j.c.hawksworth@gmail.com
Comment by Josh Hawks -
Pingback: The Big Winner » Billionaire Businessman Mark Cuban is Going Long
I’m not sure if I saw this posted in the blog or if I heard you in an interview talking about this. When you sold your business if I recall you took $100 a share and it ran to $160 thereafter. Can’t remember the exact wording but folks were asking if you were angry about your decision. Your comment was something like I walked away with a heck of a lot of money … and that you were not angry at all.
A couple lessons of wisdom all market investors/traders need to understand. #1 Market movements will many times go a lot further than you could ever anticipate (both up and down). #2 You don’t have to sell at the top or buy at the bottom to make things work.
Mark, from reading your blogs over the years it is clear you both buy and sell (short) the market. Most traders/investors are only comfortable buying. Its my opinion if you can’t both buy and sell without anxiety, that person belongs in certificates of deposit.
Comment by Carl -
Phillip you have no sense of humor. Let me try again with you. Those computer devices you see the pit traders using are actually scanners for blogs on the internet, looking for folks who posted their trades so they could give them some pain.
Comment by Carl -
Carl: “You should know better than to post your trades in a public forum. The pit boys watch for these things and teach posters a lesson.”
I spent a number of years as a local in the Dow Jones futures pit at the Chicago Board of Trade. The notion that we care about stuff posted on blogs is laughable. Even more laughable is the notion that we have the power (or desire) to “teach posters a lesson.” Nice job of not taking responsibility for your actions and instead blaming pit traders for your losers.
Comment by Penn State football email list -
Id say the best “place” to invest right now is in your family and friends. (At least until after the election). That is where the real wealth is anyways.
Comment by Phillip Conti -
Hope your ass didn’t get plundered by the huge move in DOW, since u had written puts.
Comment by blackie swan -
I think that the point trying to be made is that if you had everything in CD’s that little 3% return would be out performing all the pro hedge fund, money managers. If you did the typical buy/ hold strategy you would have lost all of your “paper” profit since the market has basically taken a 30-40% nose dive. Where as with CD’s you would have actually made 2-4% over the past few years.
“I am debt free except for one car. My wife and I actually work really hard at not owing people money. In July I was worth 100k more than I am worth now. Now I really wish I would have been in cd’s as it will take me another year to replace that money. It is gone as I have cashed out a few weeks back. August 30th time frame. I will be buying cd’s here in the next 2 weeks. 2-3% may not make me a ton of money on my money, but living a life that I can afford will and it will also allow me to sleep at night with no worries Great advice Mark. If you are not independantly wealthy, you have no business being in this market.
Comment by Daniel — October 9, 2008 ”
All I can say is “wow”. Historically, cd’s have averaged less than 3.5 percent. inflation is about the same. Go ahead and keep your cash and CD’s and when you retire, your purchase poswer will only have risen by what aditional funds you have saved. None of your current funds will have inproved their purchase power.
And if you are not independantly wealthy you NEED to be in the market. However, you need to be properly allocated and diversified.
Comment by Tripp -
Link above did not come out right after copy and past from DB. Edited it below
” Bottom analysis from
http://marketwarnings.blogspot.com/2008/10/dow-sp500-october-2008-bottom-buying.html
Comment by mike -
By the way, I was thinking of going long yesterday also and chickened out. I’ve been covering shorts over the last week that I held for a while. I told myself earlier this year, there would be a time when I was climbing the walls to go long (and reminded myself not to). I’ll be long here at some point, not sure whats going to make me take what may be a plunge.
Comment by Carl -
You should know better than to post your trades in a public forum. The pit boys watch for these things and teach posters a lesson. The DOW is 1000 points lower than when you put that trade on yesturday, OUCH if you were short puts.
From MC>
Thank goodness I covered the puts when the market was still positive and started to trade down..
Comment by Carl -
Mark-
The currency is insolvent. Do you need to know anymore than that? Go long on gold, its all we have right now to protect wealth from inflation.
Comment by staypuftman -
You are a fool.
Comment by Brent Ritterbeck -
I wanted to know why Mark Cuban is not advocating that any smart investor profit from the volatility in markets. Why not buy a call and put for lehman for example?
Comment by Phillip Conti -
Jim Parham,
What the heck are you doing? All you have to do is give them the cost
basis of your trades. You broker should have this information.
Call your broker and your accountant and stop putting yourself
through hell with the IRS
Comment by stoxtar -
Long now Cuban? How’d that work out?
Comment by Alex -
Mark, any chance of posting the names of some of the MLPs you like?
Comment by Penn State football email list -
Problem with CD’s is if the dollar continues to fall (and it will
since they just keep printing more of them to bail out Wall Street),
you’re still losing money in your CD. Dividends aren’t safe either,
just ask the AIG investors, or Wachovia, or WaMu, or GM, or…..
Brilliant move shorting the DOW, but you should have stayed
short a while longer.
Comment by Steve R -
Pingback: Unprecedented - Down Seven in a Row « chrisco.us
Hi Mark, Can you provide the names of some MLP’s (Master Limited Partnership) that an average investor can purchase?
Comment by Bill -
The ‘technicals’ are wrecked. The DJIA will drop to 7000 before it finds any real ‘support’ level. Dow 14000 was another bubble.
Comment by Jim Parham -
Jim – The guy who didn’t file his tax returns.
Go file them you retard!! Walk down to H&R Block or Jackson Hewitt and refile those years you haven’t filed.
With a move this stupid I’m amazed that you know how to work a web browser.
Comment by Kevin C -
Pingback: theceodaily.com» Morning Update » October 9, 2008
I think that the point trying to be made is that if you had everything in CD’s that little 3% return would be out performing all the pro hedge fund, money managers. If you did the typical buy/ hold strategy you would have lost all of your “paper” profit since the market has basically taken a 30-40% nose dive. Where as with CD’s you would have actually made 2-4% over the past few years.
I am debt free except for one car. My wife and I actually work really hard at not owing people money. In July I was worth 100k more than I am worth now. Now I really wish I would have been in cd’s as it will take me another year to replace that money. It is gone as I have cashed out a few weeks back. August 30th time frame. I will be buying cd’s here in the next 2 weeks. 2-3% may not make me a ton of money on my money, but living a life that I can afford will and it will also allow me to sleep at night with no worries 🙂 Great advice Mark. If you are not independantly wealthy, you have no business being in this market.
Comment by Daniel -
So you are investing in the “ponzi scheme” as you have said to me in several e-mails? I fid that very interesting. Maybe I should post your e-mails to me here.
Comment by Frankie M -
“The concept that you own your share of the discounted cash flow of a company is the biggest lie ever sold by brokers in the history of financial markets.” Yet better investors than
than even you believe it, guys like Buffett. The difference is they,
and I think you as well, understand the only investments that matter come with with management that
treats you like a partner. Dividends is a sign of that. Whitman wrote
a long and otherwise boring book on the discount that needs to be
applied to any investment the farther you are from a control position or
the less trust you have in those in the control position. Keep ranting, you have
one of the best perspectives out there even if you occasionally go over
the top. And update your editor so it word wraps, I’d like to better edit
my posts.
Comment by Randy Hill -
In the current market, Cash is King. Don’t you think this will put tremendous pressure on companies to reduce or cut their dividend payout, at least in the short run, 6- 12 months? They will need it for operations and P/R since most S-T borrowing has dried up.
Putting money in a CD is a good thing today. A positive return of ,say, 1.2% is far better than a negative return (loss) any day of the week. In the short term, you must ignore the inflationary loss effects. Remember, Cash is King today.
And yes, do not take investment advice from anyone. Everybody will tell you about the wins they got in Las Vegas but they never tell you about their losses. Mark, got any of those stories?
Fair and Balanced. ALWAYS!
Comment by Neil in Irving -
Great post as always and I think that the only way forward is to get back in the game, there are many
great companies out there – besides which bank do you trust enough for CD’s these days if you have
more than the insurance limit?
Comment by Klaus -
Sorry to be depressing, but aren’t people tightening belts across the country as we speak? Don’t you think many more layoffs will happen in Q4, at least as the financial firm consolidations happen?There is going to be much less consumerism in this country over the next 12 months. Won’t this mean lower earnings and lead to lower stock prices? Shouldn’t we expect further hedge fund liquidations as the thousands of overleveraged, underperforming funds are forced to close after Sept and Oct losses? I know the Commercial Paper Funding Facility helped GE lower its borrowing costs yesterday, but won’t there be plenty of other companies who can’t re-up at the borrowing window and end up defaulting?
On top of that, how many more bullets does the Fed/Treasury have at their disposal? One more rate cut. They’ve already basically blown through every option in the playbook. Vol can still go up from here, and the longs can go down.
I’m obviously still pretty bearish and have been mostly in cash for the last year. I am not buying until either prices are so jaw-droppingly low (i.e. 2001 levels which were basically 1991 levels) or there is some indication that the Fed bailouts are working by an unfreezing of the credit markets. There have been a few glimmers of hope (GE’s deal yesterday, 2 year swap spreads came in a bit) but LIBOR is still higher than ever and the world is not looking healthy this morning. I bet this little pop this morning fizzles and we go back to our previously scheduled asset deflation.
See you at the Mavs games; hoping for a strong season.
Comment by Dallas Neighbor -
Mark, I am ashamed of your advice to go long. Politically, this country is now a socialist state. Socialism has never worked and will not work in this country. Companies represented in the Dow will continue to malinvest and miss their targets. Any rally in the market will be met by selling and now short selling. The best thing that can happen is a continual drop in the market. 7000 would be fine, however, expect more government injection of funny money all along the way.
Comment by Ralph Harrison -
Mark – If income is the only factor in your decision then I would not advise
advise investing in equities. There are many bonds which provide even
greater yield. If you want your company to pay you money, you want to
be creditor, not a shareholder, because companies can cut renege on
dividends anytime but not their debt.
But if you are looking at income and capital appreciation, then part
of your argument for dividend stocks does not hold up, because you
are admitting that you do care about where the share price of the
company you invest in ends up. If that is the case, then you have to
look at other criteria – not just dividends.
The moral of my argument is – if you want income, then invest in
fixed income. Despite what people say about dividends, equities are
just not meant for income generation.
Comment by Julian -
Funny, I just noticed your post… I wrote a similar one yesterday. I shorted MSFT puts and went long the Sweden ETF (EWD). Post here: “Quick Market Update – Interesting Stuff Today”: http://chrisco.wordpress.com/2008/10/08/quick-market-update-interesting-stuff-today/
Comment by chrisco -
The stock market is a dangerous game indeed. Have you read about all the folks that are rapidly losing their life savings because they decided to invest in stocks, mutual funds, 401Ks, etc? Trillions of dollars in paper losses in recent history. Oh well, at least the banks, the insurance companies, and the CEO’s and other big wigs are still getting their piece of the pie — hundreds-of-millions of dollar pie. Pretty tastey, don’t ya think? When the going gets tough, the fat-cats get bailed out. All is forgiven. Oh, and by the way, go ahead and help yourself to a bag-o’-golden-parachute on your way out. Nice doin’ business with ya! We’ll slap you on the wrist at a later date. Lesson learned.
In the mean time Average Joe (and Jim) continues to get bamboozled, even bullied …by banks, creditors, and the government.
In the year 2000, I began trading stocks for a living. I traded based on technical analysis and short term trends. I did okay, I scraped by. I was chasing the American Dream. But I made huge mistakes. For one, I didn’t have money to trade, so I borrowed against credit cards. Those courtesy checks are quite convenient. They used to come in the mail on a regular basis.
Trading was my only source of income for several years. I did not file any tax returns for several years. Subtracting the losses from gains, I didn’t have enough income (profit.) That was big mistake #2. (You file no matter what). When the IRS sends you a bill they don’t factor the purchase price of stocks into the equation. They base your ‘taxes owed’ on the total dollar amount of the sells only. So it doesn’t matter that I traded the same $10,000 over and over again for small gains and losses. The IRS says I sold millions of dollars worth of stock, therefore I owe taxes on those millions of dollars, or the total dollar amount of all the ‘sells’. What? …That logic would assume that all of my stock purchases were for free!
To make a long story a little shorter… The IRS showed up at my door today. I did not answer. The representative left a certified letter at my apartment door. For the tax year 2001, I supposedly now owe $1.5 million! The amount is growing by the day. The things is …I don’t owe that amount. But I’m not a CEO who helped crush the world economy so I MUST PAY! Does it matter that I’m behind two months rent on my one bedroom apartment? Does it matter that I lost my job, and I currently sell guitar picks on eBay to eat? Does it matter that I need to sell my 1990 Toyota Celica (with over 200,000 miles on it) within a week or I will be served an eviction notice? Does it matter that I am a good person and am kind to others? Does it matter that I am depressed out of my mind, or that I’m afraid to answer my phone or my door? No it doesn’t! I have to suffer the consequences of my stupidity…
Here is an excerpt from the IRS certified letter I received: We may file Notice of Federal Tax Lien at any time to protect the government’s interest … If you do not pay the amount you owe ($1,502,721.72), make alternative arrangements to pay, or request appeals consideration within 30 days from the date of this letter, we may take your property, or rights to property, such as real estate, automobiles, business assetts, bank accounts, wages, commissions, and other income.
Well guess what? I have very little left. Just my heart, my soul …And a friend upstairs.
Comment by Jim Parham -
Great move on the Dow puts, if I had more resources to risk I would’ve made a similar move. While the premium is there on the puts, I think we have a ways to go still.
Look for the Dow to at least get to 8400 before any type of major reversal. At least like a good gambler you are taking a good portion of your winnings off the table!
Comment by Mika C -
Pingback: uglychart.com: a blog about stocks » Blog Archive » Mark Cuban is going long
Mark, what about the tax implications from investing in MLPs? Aren’t you still getting taxed n all the dividends that you get paid? Even if you re-invest them back into the stock itslef?
Comment by Vladik -
thank you. any chance you can share some of the MLPs that have passed your filter?
Comment by bill -
Hey Mark, isnt it time to profit from the volatility in markets?
Comment by Phillip Conti -
I agree with you. Check out thepiggybanker.com for the latest top CD rates.
Comment by John -
If you look at the DOW chart historically, and you ignore the last 2 bubbles, try to follow the curb as it used to be up to 1995-1996, you’ll see that the DOW should be around 8000 points today…
Comment by Joe -
Your post, as usual, is good. However, I can’t agree with you about this”, If your advisor was so smart, they wouldnt be giving you advice on what to buy. They would be sitting on their yacht, being taken to port to hop on their helicopter to go to the airport to jump on their GV to go to their house on an island you have never heard of.”
If that were the case, isn’t that all you and your friend Donald Trump would be doing? Why does Buffet still work?
Comment by Will -
It might still be the safe move, but CDs generally track inflation pretty closely, so you’re not really making any real money buying CDs
Comment by d -
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1. Business needs sales backlog for long term growth. If you can look past the screaming, Cramer made a good point in talking about excessive inventory in Tech, I would agree that most industries are experiencing excessive inventory or slower asset turnover.
2. Economy is in a deleverage mode versus a spending/growth mode. Generally dividends will disappear in favor of sustaining operations.
3. Panic exceeds greed. (Welch said something like that this morning)
Our expectations will get lowered when it comes to defining a reasonable P/E for each industry.
Give me some positive data on one of the top 3 and I am in.
Comment by EG -
Thanks. The 6-month CD and baseball card ideas I only half-got til now.
Comment by Paul G -
I started reading your blog because of the rumors about you purchasing the Cubs. As a lifelong Cub fan I was interested in your perspective. I did not expect a first class and first rate education as well (after reading on your recommendation The Number I was further enlightened).
Keep on teaching- you have an audience
Comment by prk60091 -
I sold some SPY put verticals to limit my risk. Looking good so far. I’ve had SKF verticals sold for some time as a decent hedge. If you know a stock you want to get into, pick a price and sell puts at that strike. Nov puts can be sold to return about 10% on basis in 1.25 months.
I’ve got a couple videos detailing this info and some more over at http://www.investingwithoptions.com
Comment by Steve Place -
I’m confused. Cuban says now is the time to buy, and Cramer is saying to sell everything. Who do we trust?
Comment by Jack -
I think you’re timing is money Mark. I think today’s a good, a good day to put some money to work in stocks. How much worse can it get?
I think you might be surprised and we get a powerful short term rally.
CDs are fine for the short term but with the Fed dropping money from helicopters, inflation will destory your real purchasing power over the long term. Very few are rich enough to put everything in CDs and expect that money to support them for the rest of their lives.
Love this post!
Comment by Greg Feirman -
Mark:
Thanks for the great insight! Quick question. Have you compared the gains of CD’s vs. annuities? Typically you will pay taxes on the CD’s, but your money grows tax free inside the annuity until you take a payout, usually at retirement. By then you’re in a different tax bracket. You should be able to find an annuity that pays equal interest to most CD’s. What are your thoughts?
Comment by Dennis Wells -
I love reading your blog…but I do not understand much of what I read. I’m using you to teach me:) I read what you wrote about how to get rich. I also read an article that said if you have credit card debt it’s like you are a slave. That’s me. I will be debt free in 2 1/2 years…CAN’T wait!! But in order to do so I am driving a ’94 olds. It’s embarrasing sometimes, but I just think…in two years I’ll be sitting pretty. Think I will take advantage of the CD advice.
Comment by Margaret -
I went long DIA yesterday too. Not 8% of my net worth, but everything I had available. Glad to know I’m coinvesting with you.
Go America! Now’s the time to pull it together and work our way out of this mess.
Comment by Michael F. Martin -