The Simplicity Test: A Simple Policy Guide for Job Growth

The simplest way to create more jobs is to allow small business and entrepreneurs  to  spend less time and money on lawyers and accountants and redirect that intellectual and financial capital to the core competencies of their business.

Any new government policy that requires the hiring of lawyers and accountants will not lead to new jobs, it will lead to time and money being wasted and fewer jobs being created.

Like the administration before it, the current administration seems to have no concept of what it takes to start, run and grow a small business. None.

Here is a hint. If you want to see more jobs created by Small Businesses and entrepreneurs REDUCE the amount of paperwork required. Dramatically simplify the tax code. In other words, if you REDUCE THE OVERHEAD of small business, you effectively create capital for them through reduced costs. Not only do you improve their financial position, but you reduce that great big time suck known as dealing with your accountants and lawyers. The more time wasted with “professional services”, the less time spent doing your job. This seems to be a concept lost on government.

One last thing. It appears to be a goal of the administration to free up loans to small businesses. For the sake of this comment, let me re-define Small Business as those companies with fewer than 20 employees. There are exceptions, but more often than not, the stupidest thing a business of this size can do is borrow money. Its stressful enough for a small business in these times to be profitable. Add to that stress the need to repay a loan and success becomes far more difficult.

If we want to accelerate the formation and growth of these small businesses we need to first reduce the costs imposed on them by the government (at all levels) and then  simplify and reduce the costs of raising capital.  Forget government loan guarantees.  Make capital gains on investments up to $1mm in small companies tax free. Make this process paperwork free for the small business and a 1 page form for the investor.

Thats how we will see economic and job growth in this country

Talking the IPad, Kids, Making Money and Video

I cant wait to get my hands on the IPad. Its going to be a HUGE hit.

You can book it right now that it will be the product that kids of this generation grow up with and look back on with affection just like we did with the first video games. Video games changed how we grew up. The IPad will change how kids grow up.

Apple was brilliant in how they cultivated apps for the IPhone and  Touch.  With so many apps for kids, any parent with young kids and either of these 2 devices will tell you that their kids use and love them.  In fact, it was this very reason that I helped create Puzzle Palace for the IPhone. It allows my kids to take the pictures they take and turn them into puzzles. My 3 year old loves it.

The IPad will take this to the next level.  I recognize that its very expensive for most families right now. Hopefully that will change over time. If it does,  you can bet every home with kids will have an IPad. And the first person to create the “kidproof” covering will make money as well (Hint to entrepreneurs) On the flipside, the minute these devices hit critical mass in families,  the DVD market for kids, who watch the same movie over and over will end as we know it.  Download Scooby Do one time and  the need to hassle with all those DVDs for the kids at home or on trips becomes a distant memory. A relic of an older generation.

Thats big.

Whats also big is the exclusion of flash.  The reason is obvious. No flash.  Far less streaming over 3G. Less streaming over 3G means less bandwidth consumed. Less bandwidth consumed means ATT can  offer a GREAT price on the 3G data service. I personally have never had problems with the ATT Network.  The limits on 3G streaming probably means I wont going forward either. Thats a good thing.

Its big that there is no USB port. As a content producer thats not a good thing. It means that Apple wants to force us through ITunes to sell content. It will be the path of least resistance for consumers to add content to the IPad and a HUGE source of revenue for Apple. Im sure there will be work around alternatives, but they wont be able to match the simplicity of the ITunes Store.

Outside the Apple Universe, the company that should be licking its chops is Dish Network. Their SlingBox product just became a grand slam.  I absolutely LOVE the sling box app I run on my IPod Touch to watch NBA League Pass games, HDNet in a hotel room  and other shows that I record on my DVR. I cant wait to  put it on the IPad and its big screen.

And finally, if i was just out of school and fluent in all things Wi Fi , networking and wireless, I would immediately go door to door offering to fine tune your home’s wireless network.  With new HDTVs coming out with Wi FI, the IPad, SlingBox, Netflix Streaming and other applications consuming tons of bandwidth in the home, it is an ABSOLUTE certainty that 99pct of home networks can be improved and perform significantly better.  Be that kid in your neighborhood that comes in and fine tunes everyone’s wi fi in their home for 50 or 100 bucks (or more if you live in a fancy part of town) and you will make some good money.

Why are we condemning Jeff Zucker & NBC over Leno ?

If you want to know why its going to take longer than people hope or expect to get out this great recession, look no further than media and corporate response to Jeff Zuckers move of Jay Leno to primetime.

What Zucker and NBC did was the EXACT RIGHT MOVE.

Business environments change. When they do, as broadcast network television has, and continues to, there are two basic choices. You can do it the way it’s always been done, or you can challenge yourself to change the game.

In the case of NBC, Jeff Zucker chose to take a risk and move Jay Leno from late night television to primetime.  The upside was HUGE.  Rather than risking tens of millions of dollars each season on pilots that never make it on air, and then watching those that do get aired fail far more often than they succeed, Leno in primetime could change the economics of primetime TV dramatically for the better.

Leno’s show would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars per hour instead of 2mm, 3mm or more per hour. A game changer. It was  equivalent to CBS putting a reality show in primetime. Survivor worked. It changed the economics and ratings landscape of TV forever. A successful Leno show would do the same thing,.

But what if Leno to primetime failed ? What was the downside ?

The downside was that NBC could go back to business as usual. They could cancel and move Leno, just as they have done. Then they could go back to the old school way of lots of pilots, build a primetime schedule, and then pray some of the shows work. Rinse and repeat.

Going forward they will program the 10pm slot. They will get some hits, some misses. It will be expensive, but in a few years they will find a hit and recapture the viewers they lost. Just as every network has done in response to a down period.  In a few years the Leno experiment will be nothing more than a memory. A big so what.

Thats what happens when ideas fail. They fade into memory and hopefully something is learned.

But there is a bigger message in all of this.

What I have learned from watching all of this is that corporate America has been neutered. No one has any balls anymore.

I have a saying, “No Balls, No Babies”. It was told to me by a blackjack dealer when I asked if I should double down on an 11. The message was simple. If you dont take the risks, you dont get the rewards.

Well that used to be the case. Its not anymore.

In today’s corporate world, if you don’t take the risks, you don’t get skewered on blogs, on cable news, in the newspaper. Public condemnation  appears to be a far worse consequence than financial success is a reward. Thats a huge problem for our country.

In today’s world, we reward Patent Trolls with 8 and 9 figure settlements for ideas they never did a minute of work on or ever tried to monetize. The extent of their effort was hiring or selling out to patent lawyers. That’s a problem.

In today’s world, we reward companies that cut 10,000 jobs to benefit a few thousand shareholders. We lie to ourselves and say that the money will be re-invested in growth or passed on to shareholders. In reality, it will be used to buy back the stock that was awarded to corporate management under the guise of “avoiding dilution”

In today’s world, we let politicians pretend they know how to solve problems by creating policy “solutions” that are supposed to be implemented over 10 years, while we as voters and citizens go mute despite knowing there is absolutely no chance that any program survives 10 years and any number that is attached to any program, whether its health care or a stimulus program, is an absolute guess at best and most likely an outright lie.

We need more Jeff Zuckers. We need people who try to change the game. Who don’t just approach problems with gutless answers. So what if it didnt work. So what if the media rips him and NBC.

The only problem with what Jeff Zucker and NBC did with Leno is that they are unique in trying to solve problems with original solutions.

We need far more of it. Not less

Think the Internet Will Replace Cable ? Read this first

As is the normal way on the internet, people love to read headlines. Of course they rarely read the substance of the article behind the headline. They take the headline and run with it as gospel. This is particularly true of internet video and the presumption by many that the internet will be so vast and powerful that its a foregone conclusion that video on the internet will replace traditional television delivery.

Aint gonna happen.  I can go into depth about it, but my buddy Dan Rayburn does a far better job of it.  He asks the simple question of “how is it the Youtube , with all of google’s resources,. cant solve their buffering problem ? ” Then he answers much of it.

Now maybe Youtube will fix their buffering problem someday, along with the other issues that Dan addresses, but it wont be easy and it wont be quick.

You can find Dan’s work here. Make sure to also read the comments. He does a good job there as well

Let me add a couple other thoughts. There are many that think that video over the internet will “set them free” from having to deal with a small number of big companies (think cable, telco). . If that is what you think, you better think again.  There are maybe 3 companies that can stream to 1mm or more simultaneous users. Google, Limelight and Akamai.  And that 1mm simultaneous users isnt just for your content. That is for EVERYONE’s content and they cant get much beyond 2mm without big problems.  More importantly, if you want to stream your content to millions of users at once, its going to cost you an incredible amount of money.

Which leads me to a lesson for all you netizens who are jazzed up about over the top video.  If you really believe the demand is there and your content will command 1mm simultaneous users , its probably cheaper to pay Directv, Dish Network and Comcast to create a channel for you and let your viewers watch it on tv.

Let that sink in. Its going to be cheaper to have the big traditional cable distributors offer your content to viewers than it will be to reach a large audience on the net. Thats for a one time offering. If you plan on doing it more than once or on a regularly scheduled basic, there is no question its cheaper to do it this way. And the picture quality will be dramatically better.

In fact, that is probably a great business opportunity for satellite, telco and cable companies. Open up times to bid to offer content over their networks. You want channel 1020 on Directv, its X dollars per hour minimum or the best price bid. Here is how you provide your content to us. You can buy marketing from us as well. Directv, Dish, Comcast could make a boatload of extra money offering this service.

And i can give you one more option.  It may be cheaper to go to a movie theater chain and pay them to broadcast the content you want people to see via digital to their theaters. As long as its a slow night and they can sell popcorn, I can assure you it will cost you less than a content distribution network would charge to deliver to thousands of viewers.

Maybe someday over the top video will be a realistic alternative to traditional distribution of content, but its not now and its not this year or next or the next and probably not the year after that

Success & Motivation: A Lesson & The Worst Sales Letter Ever..

I get pitched continuously. Email after email.  99pct get deleted within 10 seconds. Some repeat offenders get filtered directly to spam.

The quickest way to get deleted and filtered as permanent spam is to send me an email a 2nd time and comment that you are going to show me some  ”perseverance” and continue to send me the email till I respond.  Why do people think this will work ? .  For those of you who are not smart enough to figure it out,  it is not perseverance to resend an email to someone, anyone, multiple times. Its LAZINESS . Lazy people think they are working hard when they hit the send key. That’s not work.  That’s wasting time. That’s the lesson of the day.  Sending the same email over and over again not only shows you to be lazy and annoying, but it gets you sent directly to spam.

Now for a sales letter so bad it went from humorous to disturbing.  I have marked my comments with an *

Good morning Mark,

I spoke to your very capable secretary Nancy earlier today.

*I dont have  a secretary named Nancy*

As a former active Attorney, Real Estate Broker and Advisor with Merrill Lynch,

I believe I have a unique insight into the next big moves in Stocks and Precious metals.

While I do not have a “crystal ball”, I do my homework.

*Nothing unusual so far, but then all of the sudden, the letter gets bizarre.  He starts pimping out his daughter for no reason I can figure out *

I have a daughter, Cxxxxxxxxxx, who is a senior in high school.

Two years ago after being chosen by Coca Cola to do a multi-media modeling

Campaign focused on the Olympics in China, she had her ACL ligament severed in a soccer incident. In the Junior

Miss  Pageant she won Best Actress and was in the top 10 overall.

She was a model with Elite in XXXXXXX.

You should see her photographs; Facebook:  XXXXXX,  in YYYYY City

****Im sorry, the whole daughter thing was incredibly disturbing to me*

I plan on specializing in this sector for the next 5 years.

*** IN what , pimping your daughter ?****

I have attached charts for Gold and Silver which go back to 1980.

*How did we get to gold and why ? The simplest search on my name and gold shows I am not a fan of gold. Never will be.***

Gold has made Highs in Jan 1980, 88, 96, 04, 2012?

Gold has made Lows in Jan  1985, 93, 01, 09, 2016?

Silver spent 11 years building a descending wedge from 1980 to 1991.

Silver spent 11 years building a base from 1991 to 2002.

From 2002, the next 11 years are likely to be bullish.

The long term cycle high is due in 2013.

For 9 of the last 10 years Silver has shown Seasonal strength from the end of October

to the end of May with an average gain of 21.4%.  (Financial Post, December 8, 2009)

Gold Beats All in Decade of ‘Fear and Greed’: Chart of the Day

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=aHuMwsIjMF.U

Please click on the link above.

Investors who bought gold or commodities at the beginning of the decade should

have tripled their money by the time the ball drops in New York’s Times Square

on Dec. 31.

Gold has increased more than 380 %

Silver has roughly tripled.

Stock holders have lost approximately 10% in the decade.

We are now entering the 2nd quarter of the Bull market in Gold and Silver.

Historically when Gold makes major high, the Gold/Silver ratio approaches 40.

Gary Savage thinks the ratio could press below 40.

See: www.garyscommonsense.blogspot.com

On a percentage basis, Silver has far more upside than Gold.

Have a great New Year and a Better Decade than the last one.

Very Best Regards,

***So the guy pimps his daughter. Sends me a bunch of charts and info on Gold and Silver and then says good bye.   Dont try this at home or work ***

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