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2004-05-19 00:40:00

I have long said that the selection of officials for a game can have a material impact on the outcome. I’m positive of it. Others don’t pay attention to the data, fortunately there are some TWolves fans that do.

Someone sent me this great post from a TWolves list. For those who cant follow the statistics, just check out the last line.

>Call it whining if you must, but Flip Saunders noted that the Wolves are 0-3 in the playoffs when referee Dan Crawford officiates, 7-1 when he does not. Significant?

> Outcome 1 Outcome 2 Total
> Group 1 7 1 8
> Group 2 0 3 3
> Total 7 4 11
>
> Fisher’s exact test
> The two-tailed P value equals 0.0242
>
> The association between rows (groups) and columns (outcomes)
> is considered to be statistically significant.
>
>Apparently. Is it due to total fouls called?
>
> Total Fouls Called
> Wolves Opponents Total
> Group 1 73 61 134 Crawford’s crew
> Group 2 179 184 363 not Crawford’s crew
> Total 252 245 497
>
> Fisher’s exact test
> The two-tailed P value equals 0.3140
>

> The association between rows (groups) and columns (outcomes)
> is considered to be not statistically significant.
>
>Apparently not. Is it more calls that result in free throw attempts?
>
> Free Throws Attempted
> Wolves Opponents Total
> Group 1 49 75 124 Crawford’s crew
> Group 2 216 169 385 not Crawford’s crew
> Total 265 244 509
>
>
> Fisher’s exact test
> The two-tailed P value equals 0.0014
>
> The association between rows (groups) and columns (outcomes)
> is considered to be very statistically significant.
>
>Ahhh..there you go, mon.
>
>That’s +23 points (59FTM – 36 FTM) realized by the Wolves opponents via
>free throws over three games, or +7.67 ppg. Compare that to -31 points
>(132 – 163) over the other 8, or -3.87 ppg.
>
>Conclusion:
>
> Dan Crawford is worth 11.54 PPG against the Wolves in the playoffs.

****Note**this is from my response to a comment. I wanted to post it here so everyone had the context************

The point of this posting wasnt to show bias towards or against a team. If you read theentry, you will notice I said that I believe that referees can impact the outcome of a game.

In the case of dan crawford, I dont think he has a bias for or against the Twolves. I do believe however he calls his game with a specific style. His style is that he calls fewer fouls resulting in free throws in the first quarter . His approach to the game is to “let the players play”, early in the game.
Then if the game becomes physical as a result of the players realizing that fouls are not being called, he accelerates the rate of fouls being called for free throws to try to gain control of the game.

Let me give you what I can give you, some qualitative information, and some anectdotal data. Wish I could give you more. I cant.

Qualitative information – Quote from D. Crawford prior to a playoff game last year “Guys, this is going to be like the playground, we are going to let you call your own fouls”. The result a very physical game, with very few fouls called. (this I believe was in response to the previous game in the playoff series where each team shot 50 free throws, resulting in quite a bit of press commentary).

Anecdotal information from this years playoffs.

In the game that led to Flip Saunders comments,and Peelers 3rd qtr ejection, there wasnt a single free throw shot in the game till 6:22 remained in the 2nd quarter. How often does this happen, and from which crew chief are we most likely to see a situation where the first foul shot in the game is not until almost half of the 2nd quarter is over?

2nd anecdotal piece of data. In the Heat vs Indiana game he was crew chief, the first half had 4 free throws shot, the 2nd half had 66.

I have more. This gets the point across. If someone really wants to get into detail on this, they can go back to his, or any officials game and look at the play by play and how and when fouls are called.

None of this says that Dan Crawford isnt the best ref in the world and its just an unbelievable coincidence that all the games he gets happen to be those that have few free throws in the first half ,and quite a few in the 2nd. Anything is possible. Its just not likely.

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